Enhancing seasonal flu forecasts
Seasonal influenza virus strains can co-circulate during the same flu season, and have been shown to interfere with one another’s spread. Despite this, current flu model projections and forecasts often do not account for these strain interactions or their impact on disease spread, leading to less accurate predictions.
CIDMATH’s research aims to improve flu modeling and forecasting by incorporating multiple strains, cross-immunity, and other measures to better reflect the reality of how flu viruses spread.
OUR APPROACH
Existing models and forecasts of seasonal influenza largely ignore that flu seasons commonly involve the co-circulation of influenza virus strains. Existing models for influenza viruses with pandemic potential also largely ignore that a pandemic virus would emerge in a population that is not influenza naïve and has some degree of pre-existing immunity. We are improving influenza model projections and the accuracy of influenza forecasts by:
- Quantifying age- and strain-specific vaccine effectiveness
- Developing multi-strain models and estimating cross-immunity
- Estimating time-varying reproduction numbers for strain-specific influenza data
- Contributing strain-aware and strain-specific forecasts
Recent WORK
Preprint: Subtype dynamics reveal horizon-dependent structure in influenza predictability
Yicheng Mao, Benjamin Lopman, Katia Koelle, Max SY Lau
TEAM
Benjamin Lopman, PhD
Director and Co-Principal Investigator
Professor, Department of Epidemiology, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health
Contact
Publication Link
Emory Profile
Katia Koelle, PhD
Director of Scientific Initiatives and Co-Principal Investigator
Professor, Department of Biology, Emory University College of Arts and Sciences
Natalie Dean, PhD
Deputy Director and Co-Principal Investigator
Associate Professor, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health
Allison Chamberlain, PhD
Director of Public Health Practice and Co-Principal Investigator
Associate Professor, Department of Epidemiology, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health
Rustom Antia, PhD
Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor, Department of Computer Science, Emory University College of Arts and Sciences, Co-Investigator, CIDMATH
Max Lau, PhD
Assistant Professor, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Co-Investigator, CIDMATH
Veronika Zarnitsyna, PhD
Associate Professor, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Emory University School of Medicine, Co-Investigator, CIDMATH
Nikunj Goel, PhD
Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Biology, Emory University College of Arts and Sciences
Leke Lyu, PhD
Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Emory University Rollins School of Public Health