Seasonal influenza virus strains have been shown to interfere with one another’s spread. Despite their importance, strain interactions and their impact on epidemiological dynamics and infection characteristics are often not accounted for in influenza model projections and forecasts.
OUR APPROACH
Existing models and forecasts of seasonal influenza largely ignore that flu seasons commonly involve the co-circulation of influenza virus strains. Existing models for influenza viruses with pandemic potential also largely ignore that a pandemic virus would emerge in a population that is not influenza naïve and has some degree of pre-existing immunity. We are improving influenza model projections and the accuracy of influenza forecasts by:
- Quantifying age- and strain-specific vaccine effectiveness
- Developing multi-strain models and estimating cross-immunity
- Estimating time-varying reproduction numbers for strain-specific influenza data
- Contributing strain-aware and strain-specific forecasts